Germany can get quite cold in winter. Usually, we get snow every winter for a few weeks or at least some days. When it starts snowing, it’s great to sit inside in front of your heater, with a cup of tea with honey and watch how the world turns into a winter wonderland outside.
However, with 0°C outside, a winter wonderland can easily become a nightmare without a heater at home.
In addition to household use, Germany, compared to other European countries, still has considerable industries that depend on natural gas for specialized production processes like melting or drying.
Natural gas is also used for electricity production, mainly to compensate for demand peaks while continuing to fade out nuclear and coal-based energy. Around 50% of the natural gas used in Germany comes from Russia, as it is cheap and has been easily available.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine, many people (and governments) have been puzzled about how in Germany we did not realize the potential consequences of being heavily dependent on a single state for a very essential resource that keeps our economy going and our apartments warm.
“It’s the economy, stupid!”
Until recently, the German government believed that dialogue with Russia would be the best way to peacefully coexist and that economic interdependence would promote stability. This belief remained bulletproof when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and when Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny was treated in Germany’s capital Berlin after he was poisoned by the Kremlin in 2020.
Meanwhile, Germany’s federal and state governments promoted Nord Stream 2, a new natural gas pipeline mostly owned by Russian-state-owned company Gazprom that would allow the flow of natural gas directly from Russia to Germany.
With Nord Stream 2 reinforcing the use of natural gas in times of climate change and bypassing existing pipeline transit countries like Ukraine and Poland, Nord Stream 2 has been politically controversial, to say the least.
In early February, the new German chancellor Olaf Scholz from the Social Democratic Party (SPD), which became infamous for its members’ unconditional support for Nord Stream 2, on a visit to Washington, D.C. still did not want to commit to canceling Nord Stream 2 in case of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.
If you ask why, the answer in Germany most likely is: “It’s the economy, stupid!” This also hasn’t changed after the federal elections in Germany in September 2021, which yielded a new SPD-led government that has aspired to pursue a value-based foreign policy.
A non-German friend living in Germany told me the other day that Germans would believe in the singularity of the Holocaust. While this idea transports the notion and sense of responsibility of never again must this happen, it also creates a state of thought where war and atrocities get associated with the Holocaust and, because the Holocaust was so horrific, are hard to imagine happening again.
While the misjudgment of Putin’s plans did not only occur in Germany, the German government was among the most reluctant to recognize this mistake and its ripple effects.
Chancellor Scholz had stated that February 24th, 2022, would mark a “Zeitenwende”, a turning point in the history of the European continent and yet, the enforcement of drastic sanctions only started off slowly, as Germany’s hesitancy to agree to Russia’s exclusion from SWIFT showed.
Including SWIFT in the sanctions against Russia affects the economy and banks in Germany, too, so if you ask why the hesitancy, the answer in Germany most likely is: “It’s the economy, stupid!” Again.
Watching impassively is a guilt
While the German government has been hesitant to commit to incisive measures, the German public and civil society demanded more commitment. Demonstrations for peace and solidarity with Ukraine filled the streets of Germany in the days and weeks after the invasion.
Surveys found that around 77% of people living in Germany would endorse the strengthening of sanctions against Russia and especially young people in Germany drew the connection between the dependency on fossil fuels and the climate crisis.
Luisa Neubauer, one of the leading faces of Germany’s Fridays for Future, the Greta Thunberg-inspired student climate movement, recently tweeted: “No European country receives more fossil fuels from Putin than Germany. We are funding a war & destroying the climate.”
After weeks of crisis management and dialogue with other supplier countries, the German government has finally announced that it will drastically reduce its dependency on Russian fossil fuels and diversify its supply sources.
In the wake of realizing that, according to Chancellor Schulz, the world wouldn’t be the same anymore, the German government also announced a one-time increase in defense spending of €100 billion and decided to finally provide weapons to Ukraine.
Until recently, many people in Germany had a strong sentiment against spending money on the military and any form of military involvement. Germany’s Nazi past has certainly shaped the German attitude toward military activity.
Some have argued that Germany cannot provide weapons that would fight against Russia, as Russia used to be part of the Soviet Union, which, during World War II, suffered under the brutal invasion from Nazi Germany.
Though, this argument neglects that Ukraine also used to be part of the Soviet Union and suffered during the Nazi invasion. Ultimately, the German government changed its view, realizing that Germany would also be guilty of watching impassively when denying Ukraine the delivery of weapons in this war of aggression.
However, after the decision to deliver air defense missiles was made, it quickly became clear that the designated weapons, remainders of the GDR’s military (East Germany), were largely not functioning. Although Germany is now speeding up the deliveries to Ukraine, it brings up another issue—the general situation of the German military.
From sarcasm to seriousness
Germany (and other European countries) repeatedly got criticized by the US for not complying with the NATO membership’s obligation to spend 2% of the annual GDP on defense. Germany’s military budget has constantly increased over the past years, but has remained below 1.5% of GDP.
Moreover, considering the size of the German military’s budget, the army’s capabilities are poor relative to other countries. Some reluctance to build up a strong and capable military may have historic reasons.
However, being located in the heart of Europe only surrounded by EU members (except for Switzerland) and comfortably protected under the US and NATO security umbrella, people in Germany, different from perhaps the Baltic states bordering Russia, have never truly had the need to worry about military threats.
The low motivation to ensure a capable military, paired with limited funding led to a military that is hardly functioning. While jokes about helicopters unable to fly were common in German political satire shows, the Russian war of aggression quickly changed the way how many Germans perceived the role of the military.
“Zeitenwende” may affect Germany-China relations
For many decades now, Germany has existed in a comfortable and secure position in the center of Europe. The focus on its own economy, paired with security from NATO and a history-borne hesitancy to take on military responsibility has arguably led Germany to become careless when neglecting its military and becoming dependent on Russian fossil fuels.
While the Russian aggression has brought a brutal awakening to Germany’s behavior, it seems like some general change in the perception of economic interdependence with other countries was inflicted. Surveys from April 2022 showed that 83% of Germans think it would be important or very important for Germany to become economically more independent from China.
Thus, the “Zeitenwende” may impact Germany’s global economic and political relations in the future.
*中文版：從「拚經濟」到「送武器」，為什麼德國對俄烏戰爭態度 180 度轉變？
Editor: Sylvia Tien
