President Tsai Ing-wen went on a transit trip through the United States in late March and early April, which marks her 7th transit through the United States during her time as President, and the 29th U.S. transit by a sitting president of Taiwan since the first in 1994.
Due to the intricacies of U.S.-Taiwan relations, these trips are designated as private unofficial transits rather than official government-to-government visits.
Tsai’s 2023 transit is distinguished by an in-person meeting between President Tsai and U.S. Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and although this meeting was not able to replicate the Pelosi visit to Taiwan, it is nonetheless a success. However, it does show that there is still a glass ceiling in terms of achieving major breakthrough in Taiwan US relationship even at this particular apex of US Taiwan relationship because US Taiwan relationship is built upon a finely outlined pretext and precedence of diplomatic protocols defined by nuances set by the foreign policy stakeholders in the US and progress could only be made carefully and incrementally.
For President Tsai, who is well versed in foreign policy, what she accomplished in her trip should be lauded, and in the eyes of the beholder, probably one of the most successful “transit” trip, yet it showed that even for her “graduation trip”, this may be as good as we could get.
President Tsai arrived in New York on Wednesday, March 29, where she was received by Taiwan Representative to the United States Hsiao Bi-khim and Laura Rosenberger, the newly appointed Chairperson of the American Institute in Taiwan which was in line with past protocols. In the evening, Tsai attended and spoke at a banquet dinner with Taiwan expats and Taiwanese-Americans in which she praised Taiwan’s resilience during the Covid-19 pandemic, remarked that Taiwan is “rising in global importance,” and described U.S.-Taiwan relations as “closer than ever.” State and local officials were in attendance, including New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy, Deputy Speaker of the New Jersey General Assembly Raj Mukherji, State Senator of New Jersey Gordon Johnson, and State Senator of New York Iwen Chu.
During her full day in New York on March 30, Tsai visited businesses owned by young Taiwanese-Americans, and she met with Taiwan expatriates and Taiwanese-Americans at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office (TECO). While at TECO, Tsai met with AIT Chairperson Laura Rosenberger, as well as permanent representatives to the United Nations of countries that have diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Tsai also met with U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, the most senior person she has met with during her U.S. transits up to that point. In the evening, Tsai attended a private reception and event hosted by the Hudson Institute, a conservative think tank disliked by progressives, and she received the organization’s Global Leadership Award. On the morning of March 31, Tsai’s transit through New York concluded as she embarked to Guatemala, but before she left, she also met with three Republican Senators, Dan Sullivan, Joni Ernst and Mark Kelly, all of whom were veterans and currently serve on the Armed Services Committee.
For this first leg of the “transit”, most of her activities were standard procedures, while her meetings with US politicians were kept low key and away from press attention. Though Republicans are currently the minority party in the Senate, the three senators discussed the Stand with Taiwan Act with President Tsai, which mandates sanctions should China invade Taiwan. For her trip in New York, I would say the meeting with Hakeem Jeffries, a congressman from Brooklyn, was most noteworthy though it was kept very low key and did not receive much coverage in Taiwan and even less in the US. Jeffries was recently elevated to House Minority Leader, a position long held by Pelosi, during his political career his committee assignments have been related to domestic policy, so we do not know where he stands on US China relationship. He did comment that the formation of a Select Committee on the Strategic competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party may dabble in xenophobia, at this point I do not assume we will hear anything concrete from him, but a meeting, even with the slightest of fanfare, is a good start.
Much has been said about President Tsai’s meeting with Speaker McCarthy already, so I will not review the chronological details or discuss about talks surrounding arms purchases. According to New York Times, Tsai specifically asked McCarthy on improving trade and economic ties between the two sides, an important issue that we ought to raise as trade talk has been lagging even after we have eased pork and beef restrictions amidst ongoing trade negotiations. It is no coincidence that as TSMC expands its footprint in the US at the behest of the Biden administration its expansion in Kaohsiung has been delayed, therefore it is important for the Tsai administration to see what we could leverage in return from the US. It is also important to note that the meeting was held at Reagan Library, for many conservatives, Ronald Reagan is viewed as one of the best leaders for bringing the US out of its struggles on the global stage after its setback in Vietnam and Iran to ending the Cold War. The symbolic value brings presidential hopefuls to the library to make important speeches, and having the meeting at the library was significant in setting the tone for US–Taiwan relations as a key issue for conservative politics.
However, Taiwan cannot dictate the direction of US–Taiwan relations. The side that wields the power will always be the US, and like I have said before, when we discuss “who” is this US in “US Taiwan relation”, it is not one entity and we can broadly categorize them into two sides, the elected officials and foreign policy “experts” and bureaucrats. For elected officials, they have to be wary of the pulse of the electorate and how would the public perceive actually sending boots on the ground to defend Taiwan would be a major question. Throughout modern US history, an extended war in a foreign nation often ends in public opinion souring after a few years and ultimately leading to a retreat, most recently in Afghanistan. The end game set by the PRC is clear, but how would the US actually “defend” Taiwan is an ambiguous concept.
For the foreign policy bureaucrats, we should also harken back to the past and look at the treatments President Chen and President Ma received from the US. President Chen was viewed as a “trouble maker”, and he was not allowed to transit in continental US and was only allowed to stop at Hawaii and Alaska. President Ma on the other hand was received at around the same level as President Tsai, meeting high level bureaucrats, having public events with the only difference in not meeting key elected officials. Though many in Taiwan may categorize President Ma as someone who is sympathetic to China, he was someone whom the US officials trusted and even endorsed him for his reelection campaign in 2012, so we need to understand that they view us according to how we fit their broader foreign policy and economic interests. For the past several decades, the US maintained a dovish posture towards China, and therefore President Chen, who was viewed as a provocateur was shunned and President Ma who practiced a “zero surprise” approach was more appreciated.
We could say President Tsai inherited such an approach from the previous administration, but at the same time she is keen in reading the tea leaves and we do need to praise her careful handling of US Taiwan relationship over her two terms. The kabuki theatre of “transit visits” have a long precedence, and she has continued to honor this tradition and sought to increase our footprint incrementally, which is something we can assume the foreign policy bureaucrats, which are risk averse in nature and changes can only be brought conservatively while any mistakes may offset years of hard work, would appreciate. At the same time, when elected officials such as Pelosi wish to visit Taiwan, I also think she received them appropriately and fitting to the necessary protocols. The consequence of Pelosi’s visit has now been referred to as the “Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis” and elevated Taiwan to one of global hot spots of potential conflict, which makes this trip to the US more significant in continuing the goodwill between both sides to bring normalcy back to US– Taiwan relation.
If we look at how the US press covers this visit, most of the title still narrates the visit under the context of US Sino relation, noting how President Tsai’s visit will “irk” or “anger” China. US Sino relation will always be the elephant in the room and will continue to be, the reason for our existence and importance is because we are another iteration of “China” regardless of whether domestically we find such interpretation outdated or detached from reality. We only need to look at French President Macron’s recent trip to China, in which he used Taiwan as a wedge issue to stress the EU’s independence from US influence. Undoubtedly France does not wield any true leverage on cross strait issues, but he chose make this statement just for the sake of posturing, which is a hint at how contentious Taiwan can be in terms of global politics, not that war would be imminent, but that it could be a slippery slope if something out of left field occurs. A scholar once mentioned to me, a major concern amongst foreign policy literati is that the US may “love Taiwan too much”, to be clear, it means that Taiwan may become a surrogate of US-Sino conflict.
If the US policy towards Taiwan is moving from strategic ambiguity towards strategic clarity, which the Biden administration seems to be moving towards on occasion, as in pledging support in the instance of an unprovoked attack, it may also elicit an escalation from China. This shift in US policy is also happening at the same time that China is taking a more hawkish stance towards cross strait issues, so while it is our interest to hold strategic importance on the global stage, but it is important for us to navigate ever more complicated terrain. I think President Tsai navigated this intricate situation eloquently in following precedence but making incremental improvements that we could attain without causing severe consequences, but as her second term comes to a closure, how we traverse this conundrum of US Sino competition would be penultimate to our national interest.
執行編輯：曾聖軒
核稿編輯：梅緣緣
